Type any stock. SessionOne reads the filings, runs the models and hands you the report a professional would sign: what you own, what it earns, what today's price assumes, and exactly when the thesis breaks. No finance degree needed.
In 2025 the dollar lost 11.8% against the euro. Apple rose 8.6%. If you held it through a euro broker, your statement said −4.2% and never told you why. Every US stock in a euro account is two positions: the company, and the currency it is priced in.
Apple did its job. Up 8.6% in the currency it trades in. The dollar took 11.8% off the top, and your statement blamed the stock.
Fifty-eight minutes, fourteen analysts, and seven sentences that move the price. Most investors read the headline the next morning. You will hear the call the way an analyst does, with the model updating while management speaks.
Orders up a bit. Nice.
Wholesale books turn one to two quarters before reported revenue. The first positive book since FY24 lifts FY27 revenue growth by 1.5 points in the base case: fair value +$3. This sentence exists only because an analyst asked.
Every speaker turn is tested against the drivers of the model: order book, margin walk, China, inventory, capital return. A sentence becomes a nugget only if it moves one of them. Seven did. Four of them were said only in Q&A, none of them in the press release.
| Metric | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 | Q1 FY27 E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.6B | $12.4B | $11.3B | $11.1B | $11.2B | $12.1B | $11.0B | $11.4B | $11.5B |
| YoY | −10.4% | −7.7% | −9.3% | −12.0% | −3.4% | −2.4% | −2.7% | +2.7% | +2.7% |
| Gross margin | 45.4% | 43.6% | 41.5% | 40.3% | 42.2% | 43.0% | 42.9% | 44.7% | 44.1% |
| Adj EPS | $0.70 | $0.78 | $0.54 | $0.14 | $0.49 | $0.63 | $0.58 | $0.91 | $0.84 |
| vs Street | +34% | +23% | +86% | +8% | +81% | +12% | −3% | +7% | — |
Institutions own 65% and added for two straight quarters. Insiders sold $14M in the last 30 days, all under pre-set plans.
Nike is a North American footwear company first: 63% of revenue is shoes, and 43% of it comes from one region.
Two thirds of the business is shoes sold through wholesale partners in North America and Europe. China is 15% of revenue but has driven most of the volatility since 2022.
Gross margin has held above 42% through two resets. The damage is in operating margin: 10.1% against a 13–14% history.
The gap is cost, not price. SG&A ran 270 bps above its history while revenue fell. That is fixable by management; a broken gross margin would not be.
Nike turns 11 cents of every revenue dollar into free cash and returns about two thirds of it to shareholders.
Cash earnings exceed accounting earnings, which is the profile you want. The one flag: stock comp consumes a sixth of free cash before you see it.
Buybacks removed 1.6% of shares a year. Per-share earnings compounded at 6.4% while net income grew 4.8%.
A quarter of your per-share growth came from the share count, not the business. That's fine while buybacks happen below fair value; it flatters the record when they don't.
Net cash and 21× interest cover. Nike could lose a fifth of its revenue for two years and still pay the dividend from cash flow.
Bad years absorbable: four or more. Balance-sheet risk is not part of this thesis.
Today's price asks Nike to grow free cash flow 6.1% a year for ten years. Over the last ten it delivered 4.2%.
The market is pricing a modest recovery, not a boom. You are not paying for hope here; you are paying for the order book turning, which the last call says it has.
Five of seven. Nike fails on price, not on quality.
Graham's tests were written for 1949 balance sheets. Two of the three misses are the same fact: a quality company rarely trades at 15× earnings. The one that matters is the EPS growth miss.
Three lines, set today. If any is crossed, this thesis is retired and the report says so at the top of page one.
Tripwires are checked after every filing and every close. When one trips you get one line, not a rationalisation: "Thesis retired · gross margin 41.6% · Q2 FY27."
Fairly priced. Accumulate under $68. Above $88 you are paying for a recovery the filings don't yet show.
Verdict dated 26 Sep 2026, engine v6.19. It stays on record whether it is right or wrong.
Professional valuation is never one number; it is six answers that have to agree. SessionOne runs all six on every stock, shows every assumption, and lets you disagree with any of them. You don't have to build them. You have to read them, and now you can.
Project free cash flow, discount every year back at the cost of capital, add a terminal value for everything after year ten. Disagree with the growth rate and watch the number move.
Base case assumes the spring order book holds and FCF compounds at 7.3%, a point above what the price implies. That gap is the 8% margin of safety.
Instead of guessing growth to find a value, fix the value at today's price and solve for the growth it requires. Then compare that to what the company has actually delivered.
The market asks Nike for a modest recovery, not a boom. You are paying for the order book turning, which the last call says it has.
One DCF gives one number. Run it two thousand times with growth, discount rate and terminal growth drawn from plausible ranges, and you get a distribution instead: the odds, not a point.
A coin-flip with a tilt in your favour. Not a screaming buy: the left tail is real if China does not stabilise.
Ignore buybacks and growth stories. Value only the cash that actually lands in your account, growing at a rate the record supports, and see how much of the price it explains.
Dividends alone support $53. The other $21 in the price is growth you have to believe in. Not a sell signal: dividend models undervalue every company that reinvests.
Split the company into its reported segments, give each one the multiple its own peers command, and add them up. A company is rarely worth exactly the sum of its regions, and the difference is the point.
Segment EBIT is normalised to a 13% mid-cycle margin. China earns the highest margin and gets the lowest multiple: 15× against 21× for North America. That discount is what the market charges for the channel reset. If it stabilises, the parts are worth $90.
Nine peers found, seven pass the size and margin gates. Plot what the market pays against how fast each grows, and see where Nike sits relative to the line.
At Nike's growth the peer line says 23.7×. Nike trades at 22.1×, a 7% discount to its own peer set, on forward EPS of $3.35 → $79.
Most research tells you what to think. Almost none tells you when it was wrong. Every SessionOne report ends with a price ladder and three tripwires, and every verdict stays on the record next to what happened after.
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No. Every section opens with one sentence in plain language before any number appears, and every term is defined where it is used. If you can read a bank statement, you can read a SessionOne report.
Any US-listed company, including ADRs. Fundamentals, estimates, transcripts and filings come from Financial Modeling Prep and are cross-checked against reported actuals before any model runs. Rows that fail validation are shown as failed.
A reverse DCF starts from today's share price and solves for the growth the company would have to deliver to justify it. Compared with what the company has actually delivered, that single number tells you how much optimism you are buying.
Two exposures are netted: the mechanical translation of a dollar-priced position into euros, and the company's own stated currency sensitivity from its 10-K market-risk disclosure (Item 7A), including hedging where disclosed. Both inputs are shown next to the result.
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Ninety seconds from ticker to verdict. Then decide whether you want the other 249 seats to go to someone else.